Long-term Behaviour of the Ionospheric F2 Layer Peak
Height on a Global Scale.
Thomas Ulich and Esa Turunen
Geophysical Observatory, FIN-99600 Sodankylä,
Finland.
Abstract
Extensive model calculations show that increasing amounts greenhouse gas
concentrations in the air cause a cooling of the entire middle and upper
atmosphere. Based on a scenario of doubling the CO2 and
CH4 concentrations, most authors predict a cooling of the
order of 10 K in the mesosphere. Observational evidence of cooling is
scarce, but tentatively existing. Latest temperature measurements by
lidar and from satellites show cooling trends. However, these cover
only short time intervals, in the order of one or two solar cycles.
Evidence in the form of increasing occurence of noctilucent clouds is
suggested. Such observations are difficult to quantify reliably in a
long-term data set. Lowering of the reflection heights of low frequency
radio waves has been presented as evidence of cooling. At thermospheric
altitudes Rishbeth (1990) predicted a cooling by 50 K to cause lowering
of the altitude of maximum electron density in the F2 region by 20 km.
Observational evidence for such lowering was presented by Bremer (1992),
who investigated almost 40 years of data from ionospheric vertical
soundings at one single location in mid-latitudes. We examine a large
set of ionospheric data from different stations all around the world.
While clear cooling is evident at many sites, some ionosonde records do
not show such a trend. The interpretation of these observations is
discussed.
Presented in session: 2.18
References:
- Bremer, J. (1992) Ionospheric trends in mid-latitudes as a possible
indicator of the atmospheric greenhouse effect, J. Atmos. Terr.
Phys. 54, 1505-1511.
- Rishbeth, H. (1990) A greenhouse effect in the ionosphere?, Planet.
Space Sci. 38, 945-948.